A brave new world is almost upon us

Follow the movers, shakers, and deal-makers in a post-election Europe.
By POLITICO
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HELLO and welcome to Transition Playbook. This is your new Friday newsletter, replacing EU Election Playbook now that the election is behind us. What’s ahead of us is a changing of the guard in Brussels, with all manner of horse trading and that all-important race for the EU’s top jobs. That’s what this newsletter is all about. Each week, we’ll bring you fresh insight, round up the news, and let you in on what we’re hearing.
THE EU’S PERIPHERY BECOMES CENTRAL FOR A VDL MAJORITY: There are two competing interpretations of the EU election results. But was it a “far-right surge” or did “the center hold”?
Both viewpoints are true of course — because of a third development. In Germany and, most dramatically, France, the far-right surge was massive. At the same time, centrist parties remain strong at the EU level but they do so thanks to voters in mid-sized countries, such as Poland, Spain and Romania, and in smaller countries. 
The new Commission president — most likely Ursula von der Leyen again — will be able to rely on a pro-European, centrist majority. But in that majority, the governing parties of France and Germany will be a tiny minority — which will massively weaken Emmanuel Macron’s and Olaf Scholz’s hands in the European Parliament.
“France’s clout, like that of Germany, risks being reduced after these elections,” said Pascale Joannin, from the Robert Schuman Foundation.  
Macron’s party will only have 13 out of the 79 seats that the Renew Europe group won. Already, Macron’s top MEP, Valérie Hayer, is facing a challenge for the leadership of the group from the right-wing ALDE alliance.
In Germany, Scholz’s Social Democrats won only 14 seats — a tiny amount of the European Parliament’s 135-strong S&D group. The group will now be dominated by MEPs from Italy’s Democratic Party (21 seats) and Pedro Sánchez’s Spanish Socialists (20 seats). 
Meanwhile, Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition won 21 seats, and Romania’s national coalition parties won 19 seats. “Tusk is one of the few leaders to have emerged stronger from these elections,” said one senior diplomat.
That’s going to have profound implications on the power balance between EU countries in Brussels. Countries that used to be called the EU’s periphery will now be central to the next von der Leyen majority. They will be central to approving the next Commission president and the team of commissioners, voting on regulations, and influencing the overall course of the next Commission.
In other words, the real losers of the EU elections are Berlin and Paris.
by Jakob Hanke Vela
EU LEADERS TALK TOP JOBS AT SIDELINES OF INTERNATIONAL SUMMITS: In the coastal Italian resort of Borgo Egnazia, G7 leaders are discussing Ukraine, China and other international issues. But the top jobs carve-up is being talked about on the sidelines, as it’s the first time since last weekend’s election that many of the EU’s top leaders are meeting in person.
The informal chatter will continue during the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland this weekend, but it’s not until the 27 leaders come to Brussels for Monday’s informal European Council that the contours of a top jobs deal can emerge.
As we reported earlier this week, the first contours of a package are emerging around a second term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for Roberta Metsola to stay on for 2.5 years at the European Parliament, and for Portugal’s António Costa to become European Council president. The big question mark is whether Estonia’s Kaja Kallas will be able to clinch the post of EU foreign policy chief. 
What to expect next week? Leaders will fly into Brussels on Monday, where they will first meet with their political families to talk game plans. An informal dinner will start around 6 p.m. And yes, von der Leyen will be there, although (like others) she will have to step out of the room when her candidacy is being discussed.
by Barbara Moens in Borgo Egnazia, Italy
THE BIG 4: As mentioned above it’s looking like Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, António Costa and (probably) Kaja Kallas.
GET HIM TO THE GREEK: European Council President Charles Michel’s latest attempt to undermine von der Leyen and deny her a second term involves pushing Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis as Commission president, according to five officials and diplomats.
FRENEMIES: Michel isn’t the only roadblock von der Leyen faces on her path to a second term. Her razor-thin majority in the European Parliament could undercut her chances, forcing her to court the Greens, who she’s long bashed, to keep her job.
COSTA, REALLY? Yes, despite his legal woes, which caused him to step down as Portugal’s PM last year, Costa is so far still the clear favorite to be the next president of the European Council.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST: Kallas magnanimously downplayed her chances of scoring a job offer, calling it “extremely unlikely,” but said she would “very seriously” consider accepting a post.
SO, WHO WON? Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Poland’s Donald Tusk no doubt popped the champagne on election night. The two leaders not only survived but came out on top in an election that left many of the bloc’s leaders badly bruised. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola also became Malta’s most-voted MEP candidate since the country joined the EU. Here’s the full list of winners (and losers).
WHO LOST? Irish MEP Clare Daly. The leftist Dublin MEP lost her seat, and was totally cool when reporters asked her about it. Ireland South MEP Mick Wallace is also out. Da svidania.
AND WHO GOT WEIRD? French President Emmanuel Macron called an election for some reason, former Belgian PM Elio Di Rupo ripped up his ballot paper, and Italian PM Meloni became patron saint of the Union. Here a look at all the election night shenanigans. And here’s the 23 kookiest MEPs.
CUT OUT AND KEEP: And here’s a list of all those who had success on election night.
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CZECH, CZECH AND CZECH: Jozef Síkela, the Czech trade and industry minister, is the hottest candidate for budget or energy commissioner, while Czech ambassador to the EU Edita Hrdá is being floated as a potential pick for a commissioner post, and Tomáš Kopečný, Czechia’s governmental envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, has been mentioned as a possible defense commissioner.
KYIV CALLING: There’s talk of a new commissioner for Ukraine, but such a role, including its scope and responsibilities, has not yet been confirmed.
POLAND’S PICK: Warsaw could be keen to nab the Commission’s enlargement portfolio, according to Polish newspaper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
In pole position is… Poland’s current ambassador to the EU, Piotr Serafin. It wouldn’t be his first time in the Brussels bubble, as he headed Donald Tusk’s Cabinet when Tusk led the European Council.
DUBLIN’S NEXT COMMISSIONER: Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Andrews is the favorite for Ireland’s next EU commissioner. He’s previously vowed he won’t support von der Leyen and has hit out at her over her “silence” on the genocide accusations against Israel.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE: Slovakia will re-nominate Maroš Šefčovič on Monday, we’re hearing, giving him his fourth term as a commissioner. That puts him among the longest-serving members of the College of Commissioners.
Current excitement level: Thank goodness the election is over and we can relax. Wait, what?
Last word: “There is no role for Michel in this process, except for the one in his head,” an EU diplomat speaking about Charles Michel’s role in the top jobs process.
THANKS TO: Seb Starcevic, Paul Dallison and Jeanette Minns.
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